Will Yankees Resist Urge to Gut Emerging Farm for Blockbuster Trade?
January 29, 2015 · Jason Catania · Jump to comments
Article Source: Bleacher Report - New York Yankees
Don’t look now, but the New York Yankees have behaved a little differently this winter. Actually, they’ve behaved exactly how they said they would.
At the outset of the offseason, general manager Brian Cashman indicated the Yankees likely would not be in on any of the big-money free agents, like Max Scherzer, James Shields, Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, according to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News.
Sure, they’ve still spent quite a bit—right around $100 million in free agency—but nothing quite like last year’s half-a-billion-dollar binge. And each of their buys, including third baseman Chase Headley ($52 million) and lefty reliever Andrew Mlller ($36 million), has been more reasonable than regrettable based on the price tags.
“We’re trying to plot a new road to another championship,” Cashman said, according to Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. “I think we’re more diverse and have more flexibility.”
But will the possibility of facing a third straight season sans October motivate the front office decision-makers, headed by owner Hal Steinbrenner and Cashman, to make a sudden change to an otherwise-refreshing approach by gutting what is an emerging farm system to pull off a blockbuster deal?
After all, the Yankees rotation, while rather deep, does have all kinds of injury issues—from Masahiro Tanaka’s elbow to CC Sabathia’s knee to Ivan Nova’s Tommy John surgery recovery to Michael Pineda’s, well, everything—and there have been loads of rumors that a gaggle of top-notch starting pitchers could be available via trade.
Among those elite arms who have been mentioned and would fit nicely atop New York’s pitching staff? The Philadelphia Phillies‘ Cole Hamels, the Cincinnati Reds‘ Johnny Cueto and Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann of the Washington Nationals, as Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe discusses.
The Yankees have gained a reputation for having a mediocre-at-best collection of talent in the minors, and there clearly have been some problems on both the scouting and developmental sides in the recent past. But there’s more in the minors than many give the organization credit for, too, and that could be used as ammo to acquire a big-time player, should the club choose to go that route.
Even now, the Yankees don’t have a top-10 farm system. Not yet, at least. But there are a number of promising, high-upside prospects who could be making their way to New York over the next year or two, from slugging outfielder Aaron Judge to right-hander Luis Severino to catcher Gary Sanchez to first baseman Greg Bird, among others.
And because the Yankees went to town in the international free agent market this past year, spending something in the range of $15 million—well north of their allotted signing bonus pool—on a whopping 10 of the top 30 amateurs, per Baseball America, there’s another, younger wave behind that.
Whatever New York’s system lacks in terms of elite, big-league-ready impact prospects, it more than makes up in its depth. More than likely, then, a few of those young, slightly further off talents will blossom in 2015, and then there will be something very much worthwhile brewing in the Bronx.
That’s not something the Yankees should be undercutting by jettisoning still-developing, potentially premium young players.
As Dave Cameron of FanGraphs writes on the state of the Yankees minor league circuit in relation to the organization as a whole:
The days of the Yankees simply spending their way to the top of the standings appear to be over, or are at least on hiatus. The Bronx Bombers still spend plenty of money, but they’re not lapping the league in payroll anymore, and are now attempting to compete on a more level playing field. This culture shift means the team is actually getting younger for the first time in a while, moving away from rosters constructed heavily through free agency. It also means the Yankees aren’t as strong as they used to be, and probably have another year or two before they can begin to enjoy the fruit of their current labors. The emphasis on youth and value will pay dividends, and it’s inevitable that the Yankees will become a dominant force in the AL East once again; it just probably won’t happen in 2015.
All of the above is pretty spot-on. Point being, the Yankees have been going about business a little differently of late—rather than paying out, they’re building up—so shifting gears now, in the middle of it all, would seem disingenuous and render this new direction rather pointless.
Here’s Arun Krishnan of Pinstripe Alley:
The Yankees continue to make decisions with a long-term vision towards building a pipeline of talent that builds a sustainable, annual contender. For the most part, we can expect that the players who have boosted the farm system to a potential top-10 unit will remain in the minors through 2015. On the plus side, this means the Yankees are likely to have a system pushing for a top-5 spot heading into 2016 and could be even higher with the potential addition of Yoan Moncada. The downside here is that, unusually, the New York Yankees are likely another year from contention. In the long run though, the decisions being made by Hal Steinbrenner, Brian Cashman and the Yankees front office appear like they could well be in the best interests of the franchise. Especially if the payroll space opening up in coming years is used to extend the young talent that will hopefully be pushing through to the Bronx.
There’s no way the Yankees can repeat the knock-it-out-of-the-park success they had in drafting and developing players like Bernie Williams as well as Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte and Jorge Posada—the Core Four—but it’s also not a coincidence the last time the franchise really committed to compiling talent in the minors, it embarked soon thereafter upon a four-titles-in-five-years dynastic run.
Now, the Yankees could go after a Strasburg or Zimmermann or Cueto or Hamels, and they would have the ability to put together a package that would entice the Nationals or the Reds or the Phillies.
Even in that scenario, there would remain the very real possibility New York could then also reinject some life into their farm by going hard after Yoan Moncada, the 19-year-old Cuban infielder who some say would be considered the No. 1 overall pick were he eligible for this June’s first-year player draft, as Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com notes.
While several other big-market clubs have been mentioned as suitors for Moncada, including the Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox and San Francisco Giants, the Yankees are thought to be a leading candidate, if not the favorite, to land the phenom, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America.
But what if the Yankees were to make a prospects-for-big-leaguer trade and then not get Moncada, who is projected to garner a signing bonus north of $30 million, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. The Moncada hype already has reached over-the-top levels, and the Moncada money could, too, which means it’s far from a guarantee he becomes Yankees property with so many interested parties.
And let’s be honest: Any move to trade for an elite arm or position player would require the Yankees to surrender one—or very possibly both—of Judge and Severino, depending on which trade target they lock in on.
Then there’s the fact the club also either would be taking on a hefty salary or put in position where they have to pay up to keep, say, Zimmermann or Cueto—both free-agents to be—in pinstripes for the foreseeable future.
The bottom line is the Yankees have been moving in one direction all winter and then some, going back to the 2013 draft. And as it stands now, they also will have a pair of picks in the first round this coming June, including the No. 17 overall—their highest selection since 2005, when they had the same slot.
Cashman and Co. recognize the value in accumulating low-cost, high-upside talent under several years of team control.
“Our system just got closer [to producing major leaguers],” Cashman told Davidoff. “We’ve got guys closing the gap. This winter, we’ve made some moves because we have some younger players, controllable players, who are moveable pieces.”
While the Yankees’ minor league talent is far from the best in baseball, it’s also on the rise, thanks to some savvy recent picks and a bonanza in the international amateur market this past year.
For the Yankees to abruptly change course and unload a package of promising prospects, they wouldn’t be doing something wrong, per se, but they also would be wiping out a heck of a lot of the work it has taken to rebuild and grow the farm system to this point.
Which is a lot better than it has been in some time.
Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.
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