Why the Yankees Will Win Two of Three Against the Mariners
June 30, 2009 · Jordan Schwartz · Jump to comments
Article Source: Bleacher Report - New York Yankees
The Yankees enter tonight’s three-game series with the Seattle Mariners on a five-game winning streak. After a weekend sweep of the Mets in the Subway Series, the Bronx Bombers must avoid a letdown against the red-hot M’s, who have won nine of 12.
The Yanks get a break as they miss Felix Hernandez (8-3, 2.54) this series, but they may run into some trouble against Jarrod Washburn on Wednesday. Let’s take a game-by-game look at the pitching matchups in this series.
Tuesday, June 30—Brandon Morrow (0-3, 5.64) vs. Joba Chamberlain (4-2, 3.81)
The Mariners are trying to do with Morrow what the Yanks did with Chamberlain last year—stretch him out at the major league level as he transitions from a reliever to a starter.
Morrow should be on a maximum pitch count for the first time as he makes his fourth start of the season. The 24-year-old has thrown one more inning and surrendered one more run in each of his first three turns in the rotation, culminating in a five inning, three earned run effort last time out against San Diego.
The New York hitters haven’t had a lot of success against Morrow, going 6-for-34 when he was a reliever. But as a starter, the right-hander will have to face the same batters multiple times, which should make it easier for the Yankees the second and third time through the order.
Joba, meanwhile, is coming off his fourth quality start in his last five appearances, as lunatics continue to call for his disappearance into the bullpen. In 26 career starts, the 23-year-old is 7-3 with a 3.32 ERA and the Yankees are 17-9 in those games.
Still, his 4.5 walks per nine innings is too high, but Chamberlain appears on his way toward correcting his control issues after not walking anyone in his last start at Atlanta.
Just five current Mariners have at bats against the right-hander. They are a combined 3-for-12.
Prediction: Yankees 5, Mariners 2
Wednesday, July 1—Jarrod Washburn (4-5, 3.22) vs. Andy Pettitte (7-3, 4.38)
Washburn has allowed no more than two earned runs in five of his last six starts, while increasing his strikeouts per nine inning ratio to a career-high 6.04.
He’s 5-5 with a 2.56 ERA in 12 career starts against the Yankees, so he pitches well against New York, but doesn’t get a lot of run support.
Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter have had the most success against Washburn. A-Rod is 15-for-47 (.319) with six homers and 10 RBI, while the captain is 12-for-37 (.324) with four doubles.
Melky Cabrera, meanwhile, may be benched Wednesday because he’s failed to get a hit in 13 at-bats against the lefty. Don’t expect to see Hideki Matsui, either. He’s just 2-for-14 versus Washburn.
Andy Pettitte recorded a no-decision in his last outing against the Braves, but don’t expect that to happen against the Mariners. Incredibly, the left-hander has pitched to a decision in each of his 20 career starts against Seattle. He’s 9-11 with a 4.68 ERA.
Pettitte isn’t happy to see Ken Griffey, Jr. back with the M’s. Griffey is 18-for-53 (.340) with two home runs, three doubles, and seven RBIs against him.
Ichiro Suzuki has also tormented the Yankee pitcher to the tune of 12 hits in 30 at-bats (.400). In fact, the entire Mariners roster is hitting .339 against him.
Prediction: Mariners 7, Yankees 3
Thursday, July 2—Jason Vargas (3-3, 3.79) vs. CC Sabathia (7-4, 3.55)
Vargas has really struggled in his last two road games, giving up seven runs on 12 hits at Colorado on June 14 and five runs on nine hits at the Dodgers June 26.
But this is his first trip to the Bronx and he hopes to take advantage of the Yankees’ recent struggles against pitchers they haven’t seen before. Only Xavier Nady has hit against Vargas (3-for-9), but he’s on the DL, so the rest of the Bombers will have to learn as they go.
Sabathia, on the other hand, is very familiar with the Mariners, having faced them 11 times, while racking up a 4-3 record and an impressive 2.95 ERA.
Mike Sweeney has the most experience against the lefty, picking up 20 hits in 69 at-bats (.290). Not surprisingly, Ichiro has had the most success against CC, going 15-for-38 (.395) with three home runs.
But Sabathia has held Griffey in check during their careers. The future Hall-of-Famer is just 4-for-17 (.235) with one extra-base hit.
The Yankee ace showed no ill-effects of that bicep problem that forced him out of a start in Florida on June 21. In his next scheduled appearance against the Mets Friday, Sabathia pitched seven strong innings, giving up just one run on three hits, while striking out eight and walking no one.
I’m sure that upset all the critics who think Joe Girardi has been pushing CC too hard this year.
Prediction: Yankees 4, Mariners 1
Jordan can be reached at jordanschwartz2003@yahoo.com
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