Fantasy Baseball First-Round Pick Analysis: Alex Rodriguez
February 15, 2011 · Eric Stashin · Jump to comments
Article Source: Bleacher Report - New York Yankees
There was a time where Alex Rodriguez was not only a surefire first-round pick, but the best player in baseball. The days of being the supreme force are surely behind him, but that certainly doesn’t mean that he is no longer one of the elite bats in the game.
2010 Statistics
- 522 At Bats
- .270 Batting Average (141 Hits)
- 30 Home Runs
- 125 RBI
- 74 Runs
- Four Stolen Bases
- .341 On Base Percentage
- .506 Slugging Percentage
- .274 Batting Average on Balls in Play
Important Streaks To Know
- 13 consecutive seasons of at least 100 RBI (eight of which are at least 120 RBI).
- 13 consecutive seasons of at least 30 HR (the last two have been exactly 30).
- Two straight seasons with less than 80 runs scored.
- Two straight seasons having hit under .290.
Notes
Rodriguez plays one of, if not the weakest positions for fantasy owners to fill. Considering how consistent he has been in posting elite power and RBI marks, there is little reason to think that he’s suddenly going to stop now.
Hitting in one of the premier lineups in baseball and in a ballpark that hitters feast in, there’s little reason to expect anything less than 30 HR and 100 RBI once again in 2011.
However, just looking at those two numbers and dubbing him a first-round selection once again would be a drastic mistake. At 35 years old (he’ll turn 36 in July), injuries have begun to take a significant toll on Rodriguez. They have helped to rob him of stolen base potential, giving his value a small hit.
He started the 2010 season late due to hip surgery, which helps to explain why he managed just four stolen bases (and attempted only seven). While his 46 SB campaign is well in the past, he was always a player that could steal 15-20 bases in any season.
Can we realistically expect him to return to that form? It’s unlikely, which certainly hurts his potential value.
Seeing his number of runs fall off so drastically is another concern. The hip injury probably played a role in 2010 and missing time hurt him in 2009 (78 runs in 444 AB). Still, whatever excuse you want to make, he has still been under 80 runs scored in back-to-back campaigns.
In fact, in 2010 there were 10 third basemen who scored more runs than Rodriguez. While the power and RBI help to separate him from the pack, the fact he no longer may bring a significant number of runs scored (even if you think he is going to rebound, it is hard to project him out to 100+) hurts his value.
As for the RBI, before we get overly impressed by his 125 from 2010, let us not forget the struggles that Mark Teixeira had. A rebound from him certainly could reduce the number of opportunities for Rodriguez.
Conclusion
Rodriguez brings power and RBI to the table, but no longer brings speed or elite runs scored. A shallow position or not, Rodriguez has to be dropped down a few notches on your draft board. Is he a second-round selection? Absolutely, but I wouldn’t take him in the first round.
What are your thoughts? Is there any scenario that you would take Rodriguez in the first round? Why or why not?
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Make sure to check out our previous first round pick analysis articles:
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