ALCS 2010: It’s Not About Cliff Lee, It’s About Probability. Yankees in 5
October 13, 2010 · darcy fournier · Jump to comments
Article Source: Bleacher Report - New York Yankees
Cliff Lee, if one believes what one reads, is apparently capable of walking on water, leaping tall buildings in a single bound and his fastball can outrun a speeding locomotive.
Apparently, that is not all he is capable of. He is so good that many believe that he can, by himself, defeat the New York Yankees in the upcoming ALCS.
Really?
We must all tune into this series, even if we are not fans of either team or baseball in general, because apparently history will be made as one man will win the entire ALCS by himself while only pitching two games.
Amazing.
History will be made, folks, as one man can and will, according to many, do it all and defeat the defending world champions.
Yeah, right.
Look, no one can argue with the talent and dominance that Cliff Lee brings to the mound. His skills and abilities are backed up by his performances. We get it. The man is amazing.
He is, however, a man, and only one man at that. He is not Superman. He is not the second coming.
He is a man that had to pitch 16 innings against the Tampa Rays in order for the rest of his team to move forward to face the Yankees. If not for Lee, in a five-game set, the Rangers go home early.
If baseball was a one-man sport, Lee would be the favorite. However, as we all know, baseball is a team sport, and Lee has no backup in the rotation to get the job done in a seven-game set.
The Yankees do, and they are rested and their rotation is lined up as designed.
Because of the Rangers’ inability to put away the Rays, and they had ample opportunity to do so, and avoiding a Game 4 and Game 5 in their ALDS, the advantage swings in favor of the Yankees in a large and undeniable way.
Lee, because he was needed for Game 5 heroics in the ALDS, is a man that we will not see until Game 3 of the ALCS.
Anyone see the Yankees, behind Sabathia and Pettitte in Game 1 and Game 2, respectively going up 2-0 before Lee even hits the mound? I’d take that bet.
Lee is a man that we will not see again until Game 6 pitching on short rest if his Rangers are down 3-2, in order to force a Game 7 or if they are up 3-2 and the Rangers are looking to clinch.
Either way Lee is only going to impact two games. We will see him two times.
That’s it, people, two times.
He started three games against the Yankees in the regular season and received a decision in only one game. It was a win, but it was only one win.
Superman would have won all three.
The Rangers need to win four games. Lee could only count on his fellow starters to win one game out of five against the Rays. The man can and will only do so much.
That’s where the problem for the Rangers starts and ends.
If Lee loses any one of his two starts the series is over. If Lee wins both starts the odds are against the Rangers beating CC Sabathia or Andy Pettitte twice and that is what they will need to do to pull this off.
If the Yankees go up 2-0, which is highly likely given the matchups, the series is over.
The Rangers must, in my opinion, go up 2-0 versus Sabathia and Pettitte in order for the rotation as it is to not hurt the Rangers. In order for the Rangers to win in this scenario they must beat either Sabathia or Pettitte twice.
Anyone care to take that bet? Get in line.
The regular season series was split evenly four games each.
Lee was 1-0 versus New York in the regular season with a 3.14 ERA, not exactly Superman numbers mind you, and Sabathia, Pettitte and A.J. Burnett (yes, Burnett) all pitched better than Lee and the rest of the Rangers starting rotation during the regular season set.
The respective closers for both teams got hammered during the regular season series but the rest of the Yankees bullpen, the ones that will see time in the ALCS, were superior to that of the Rangers during the regular season set.
So, what’s going to happen? Who knows? Not even Lee’s ESP (yes, I heard he can do that too) can see that far just yet.
Bottom Line
The only thing for certain in this series is this: You don’t need to be a stats geek or a sabermetrician to figure this out.
It does not matter how well Jeter hits against Lee. It does not matter how well A.J. Burnett pitches in his lone start. It does not matter how dominant Cliff Lee is, has been or might be.
It’s about probability.
Cliff Lee can pitch two no-hitters in this series and he will still only impact two games. The Rangers will need to win four and to do that they will most likely need to beat Pettitte or Sabathia twice.
It’s possible, but not probable.
If these teams play to their stats and averages, Lee, despite what he does on the mound in his two starts, will have to pull up his tights, fold his cape, hang his head and watch the Yankees move onto yet another World Series, while the Rangers head back to the ranch and prepare for next season.
Yankees in five.
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