Predicting Where Alex Rodriguez Will Hit 600th HR in Tropicana Field

July 30, 2010   ·     ·   Jump to comments
Article Source: Bleacher Report - New York Yankees


Alex Rodriguez is still one home run away from 600 career home runs and we have the updated landing spot prediction for Tropicana Field! While he was three home runs away from joining the 600 Home Run Club, SeatGeek teamed with Hit Tracker and released a report in which the most likely section in Yankee Stadium where A-Rod may hit the home run was predicted, as well as the most likely seat – “The Money Seat.” 

Indians fans, however, were not able to witness history in Progressive Field, as A-Rod did not hit 600 in Cleveland. Now, the Yankees and A-Rod head to Tampa Bay, where they play the Rays at Tropicana Field for three games. We wanted to provide the fans with an updated prediction for Tropicana Field, where there’s a 54.3 percent chance HR number 600 will occur during one of the three games. Now we have the much anticipated report updated for Tropicana Field!

We have also included Rays ticket prices (check out this link to access our new Fan Sentiment profiles, and track A-Rod’s impact daily) for games during the Yankees versus Rays series, and a comparison between the prices of this series versus the price of tickets for the other series in which the Yankees play in Tampa (for reference, see the original Yankee Stadium report here, as well as the Progressive field report).

A-Rod’s 600th Home Run: The Prediction

Using the same methodology that he used before for Yankee Stadium and Progressive Field, Hit Tracker’s founder Greg Rybarczyk was able to predict the most likely sections in Tropicana Field, based on A-Rod’s scatter plot over the past 4.5 seasons, as well as the sizes of each section in the outfield. Again, if you want a shot at catching the milestone ball, we suggest grabbing a seat in one of these sections below that have the highest percentage chance of the ball landing there!

The most likely sections at Tropicana Field are: 1. Section 145 (13.0% chance) 2. Section 143 (11.7%) 3. Section 147 (11.7%) 4. Section 141 (10.6%) 5. Section 148 (6.3%)

A-Rod’s 600th Home Run: “The Money Seat”

Hit Tracker was able to predict an average path of flight for A-Rod’s home run balls while using their database of his home runs. The ball that travels along that pass was to land in Section 135, Row 18, Seat 6 in Yankee Stadium and Section 181, Row J, the aisle seat between sections 180 and 181 in Progressive Field. While the path concluded in an aisle seat in Progressive Field, “The Money Seat” for Tropicana Field is in the middle of a row – it’s Section 143, Row BB, Seat 9 (Note: in Section 143, the rows start at T, so Row BB is actually the ninth row). Please note that even though Section 145 has the highest probability by section, the single most likely seat is located in Section 143.

A-Rod 600th flight path tropicana

Tropican Field Left Bleachers - money seat

The Secondary Ticket Market Reacts

For this series, the average transaction price on the secondary ticket market is much higher than the season average for tickets at Tropicana Field. Undoubtedly, part of that is due to the fact that the Rays are playing the Yankees, and ticket prices for games when the Yankees are in town are higher league-wide (track Yankees ticket prices here). Yet, it is also due to the fact that fans attending the game may have the opportunity to witness, and potentially catch, Alex Rodriguez’s 600th home run. The price for this series is 42 percent higher than the price of tickets for the series in April. Check out tickets for this series’ games below:

tampa bay rays ticket prices

As the Yankees’ series in Cleveland winded down and it became more likely that A-Rod would come to Tampa Bay still one home run away from 600, demand for tickets for this series, which begins on July 30, increased greatly. The day before the series began, Rodriguez still had one game in Cleveland to hit 600 – on July 29 the average listing price for tickets for all three games was $63. On July 30, it was known that A-Rod would definitely be coming to Tampa with 599 career home runs, and listing prices jumped 34 percent, to $84!

rays listing ticket price increase

A-Rod’s 600th Home Run: The Timing

The Yankees have three games in a row versus Tampa Bay, before they return to New York for a seven game home stand versus the Blue Jays and the Red Sox. It is likely that he will hit one in the next three road games – specifically there is a 22.3 percent chance he hits number 600 during the first game in Tampa, a 17.9 percent chance during the second game, and a 14.2 percent chance during the final game (Note: these percentages are as of 7/30; percentages for the following games increase after every game that he does not hit a home run). In the event that he does not hit a home run in Cleveland, we will have an updated report for Yankee Stadium. For Yankees fans, hang onto hope, there is now a 45.7 percent chance that he will hit his 600th home run in New York in front of the home crowd.

arod percent likelihood by game


  • For the best shot at cashing in on A-Rod’s 600th home run, try to get tickets in Sections 145, 143, or 147
  • “The Money Seat” is located in Section 143, Row BB, Seat 9
  • The CF area in Tropicana Field has a 16.9 percent chance of A-Rod’s 600th HR ball landing there, although there is no seating or standing area there
  • Tickets for this series are transacting at $75, which is a 42 percent increase in price from when the Yankees played at Tropicana in April, and a 70 percent increase in price compared to the average transaction price for tickets throughout the entire 2010 season
  • As of July 29 (before it was known A-Rod would come to Tampa with 599 HRs), average listing price for tickets for this series were $63 (253% of face value). As of July 30 (when it was certain that A-Rod would be going for 600 in Tampa), average listing price jumped to $84 (320% of face value). The biggest jump was for Game One; $59 on 7/29 to $99 on 7/30 – a 68 percent increase
  • There is a 54.3% chance A-Rod hits his 600th home run during the upcoming series in Tampa Bay, and thus a 45.7% chance he returns home to Yankee Stadium still stuck at 599
  • A-Rods home run ball is expected to sell for between $100,000 and $150,000 at auction based on discussions with SCP Auctions
  • The person that catches the ball will likely turn a profit of over $100,000 if they decide to sell it at auction

Best of luck catching the ball. For further inquiries, reach out to justin[at]seatgeek.com.

About SeatGeek
SeatGeek.com is the only site that forecasts how sports and concert ticket prices move on the secondary ticket market and it allows fans to search multiple sites, discover ticket deals, and find sold out tickets. Follow us on Twitter @SeatGeek!


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