New York Yankees: What to Expect from Top Prospect Luis Severino in 2015
March 4, 2015 · Tyler Duma · Jump to comments
Article Source: Bleacher Report - New York Yankees
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: The New York Yankees‘ work in the international free-agent pool netted them another top prospect.
The system has seen this before—recently, in fact. Just last year, the Bronx Bombers added prized international free agent Masahiro Tanaka, but prior to that, in 2012, the club signed a 17-year-old Dominican Republic native to a much more modest contract.
In three seasons of play since signing on with the Yankees, Luis Severino has created a world of hype surrounding his name and has inserted it into discussions of the game’s top pitching prospects.
While that’s great news, there’s better news for Yankees fans. He’s almost here.
Severino‘s ETA varies depending on the publication you subscribe to, but most have him on track for either a late 2015 or Opening Day 2016 debut. With his debut rapidly approaching, 2015 figures to be a telling season for the young right-hander.
What should you expect from him this season? Well, that’s what I’m here to break down for you.
Scouting Report
At just 21 years old, Severino already possesses two plus pitches—a fastball and a changeup.
His fastball, a mid-90s offering, features great life and movement down and in on right-handed hitters and away from lefties.
Severino‘s best secondary offering is a changeup, and it is equally as polished as his fastball. The pitch, like his fastball, features good sinking action, and it comes from the same arm slot as his fastball, making for an extremely potent off-speed pitch.
Severino‘s slider is his final offering, but it’s not at the same level as his the other two. The slider comes from a lower arm slot than his fastball and changeup, and he tends to sling the pitch rather than throw it. This causes issues with his consistency and the velocity with which he throws the pitch.
If he’s able to polish up his slider, Severino would have two plus pitches and a third average/above-average option to round out his arsenal.
The hope is that his slight frame (6’0″, 195 lbs) won’t keep him from maintaining his health over 180-200 innings of work. If this holds true, then Severino profiles as a potential No. 2 starter with the floor of a high-leverage reliever.
A Quick Look at 2014
Severino made a career-high 24 starts in 2014 and also logged a career-best 113 innings between stops at Single-A, High-A and Double-A.
The table below provides a complete look at Severino‘s 2014 statistics.
Severino made three separate stops during his 2014 campaign and was impressive every step of the way. The 21-year-old struck out over a batter per inning in comparison to just 2.2 walks per nine.
Severino put up his best statistical showing at the High-A level, but what he did over six starts with Double-A Trenton was downright dominant.
Over six starts, against significantly older competition, Severino turned in a 2.52 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP while averaging 10.4 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9.
Consider Severino‘s performance when placed in reference to the Eastern League averages for the 2014 season.
Severino outpaced the league average in every statistical measure. Given the fact that, on average, his opponents were a full four years older than him, it was an impressive showing.
Expectations for 2015
Severino is in Tampa, Florida, for spring training. In fact, the young righty made his spring debut on Tuesday (Mar. 3) against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Needless to say, Yankees fans were excited.
Severino logged just 1.1 innings in his first appearance, and while his first inning of work was outstanding, he struggled in the second. Overall, Severino was solid, allowing two earned runs on four hits while striking out two.
The debut might not have been ideal, at least after the first inning anyway, but Severino displayed some impressive command on his two strikeouts.
Forget about the four hits he allowed in his brief outing. The two strikeouts were impressive enough to outweigh the negatives.
The first strikeout came against Cesar Hernandez. Severino froze Hernandez with a 1-2 changeup that caught the outside corner of the plate.
His second and final strikeout came against Cameron Rupp. Severino gassed Rupp with a fastball that rode up and in, finishing up just off the inside corner.
Severino capped off his first inning of work against Ben Revere, who barely managed to put the ball in play, shattering his bat against a mid-90s heater, resulting in a ground ball to third base.
It’s just three at-bats, but those three at-bats profile what Severino does best, and that’s spotting his pitches with fearlessness.
Severino attacks the zone with his fastball, and he isn’t afraid to work up and in, especially against right-handed hitters. Against lefties, Severino does an outstanding job of inducing weak contact by working away and in the lower third of the strike zone.
Severino looked great against the Phillies, but the smart money (probably all the money, really) is on him going to Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre for the start of the 2015 season.
Severino has yet to break 120 innings in a season, and the team is surely looking to stretch out his arm this year in order to prep him for that late 2015/early 2016 debut.
Given his success last season and assuming a clean bill of health, the team will get 150 quality innings out of Severino and a big league debut sometime after the All-Star Game.
Overall, we’re looking at a pitcher who should experience plenty of success in his 2015 campaign. The Yankees have no need to rush Severino, and according to pitching coach Larry Rothschild, that’s exactly what the team is looking for in the young starter.
“Some come quicker than others,” Rothschild said, according to Newsday‘s Erik Boland. “Everything I’ve heard [and seen] is really good, but this is a different level. But he’s got a chance to have a good future, it’s just we have to put him in that position.”
Everyone sold yet?
Severino is going to be outstanding in 2015, and I think my projected stat line below serves as a testament to that.
If he lives up to the stat line above, Severino‘s 2015 season will set him on a course to become a regular in the Yankees starting rotation come Opening Day 2016.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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